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- TrendThemeImpact AreasCategorySummaryReport
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Short Trend Summary
Higher growth and cycle-neutral cash rates are projected, supporting fixed income returns despite higher starting valuations.
Higher Rates, Healthy Returns- Navigating Global Uncertainty
- Cost of capital
- Economic Growth
- Fixed income returns
- Interest rates
- Investment levels
- Business & Commerce
- Finance & Money
Higher growth and cycle-neutral cash rates are projected, supporting fixed income returns despite higher starting valuations.
J.P. Morgan: Ltcma reportHigher Rates, Healthy Returns
Higher growth and cycle-neutral cash rates are projected, supporting fixed income returns despite higher starting valuations.
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Short Trend Summary
Governments are shifting from austerity to fiscal activism, prioritizing investment in infrastructure, technology, and national security.
Fiscal Activism Replaces Austerity- Navigating Global Uncertainty
- Economic Growth
- Government spending
- Inflation
- Infrastructure development
- Technology Investment
- Finance & Money
- Global Challenges
- Government & Politics
Governments are shifting from austerity to fiscal activism, prioritizing investment in infrastructure, technology, and national security.
J.P. Morgan: Ltcma reportFiscal Activism Replaces Austerity
Governments are shifting from austerity to fiscal activism, prioritizing investment in infrastructure, technology, and national security. 
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Short Trend Summary
Artificial intelligence is projected to significantly impact economic growth, both through direct investment and productivity gains.
AI Drives Productivity and Growth- AI-Driven Transformation
- Corporate Earnings
- Economic Growth
- Inflation
- Productivity
- Technology Investment
- Business & Commerce
- Emerging Technology
- Finance & Money
Artificial intelligence is projected to significantly impact economic growth, both through direct investment and productivity gains.
J.P. Morgan: Ltcma reportAI Drives Productivity and Growth
Artificial intelligence is projected to significantly impact economic growth, both through direct investment and productivity gains. 
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Short Trend Summary
Public investment can significantly boost economic growth in EMDEs, especially when coupled with fiscal space and efficient government spending.
Public Investment Benefits- Navigating Global Uncertainty
- Economic Growth
- Emerging Markets and Developing Economies
- Private Investment
- Business & Commerce
- Finance & Money
- Government & Politics
Public investment can significantly boost economic growth in EMDEs, especially when coupled with fiscal space and efficient government spending.
WBG: Global economic prospectPublic Investment Benefits
Public investment can significantly boost economic growth in EMDEs, especially when coupled with fiscal space and efficient government spending. 
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Short Trend Summary
Broadening AI adoption is expected to significantly boost productivity growth in the coming years, driving economic expansion and potentially impacting inflation and interest rates.
AI-Driven Productivity Growth- AI-Driven Transformation
- Economic Growth
- Energy Demand
- Inflation
- Interest rates
- Labor markets
- Productivity
- Business & Commerce
- Emerging Technology
- Finance & Money
Broadening AI adoption is expected to significantly boost productivity growth in the coming years, driving economic expansion and potentially impacting inflation and interest rates.
Robeco: 5 year expected returns...AI-Driven Productivity Growth
Broadening AI adoption is expected to significantly boost productivity growth in the coming years, driving economic expansion and potentially impacting inflation and interest rates. 
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Short Trend Summary
Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, are leading to a more fragmented global economy, with implications for trade, investment, and economic growth.
Geopolitical Fragmentation and Distrust- Navigating Global Uncertainty
- Economic Growth
- Global Trade
- International Relations
- Investment flows
- Technological Development
- Business & Commerce
- Global Challenges
- Government & Politics
Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, are leading to a more fragmented global economy, with implications for trade, investment, and economic growth.
Robeco: 5 year expected returns...Geopolitical Fragmentation and Distrust
Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, are leading to a more fragmented global economy, with implications for trade, investment, and economic growth. 
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Short Trend Summary
Government spending and borrowing are increasingly driving market dynamics, overshadowing monetary policy.
Fiscal Policy Dominance- Navigating Global Uncertainty
- Economic Growth
- Government Debt
- Interest rates
- Private sector investment
- Business & Commerce
- Finance & Money
- Government & Politics
Government spending and borrowing are increasingly driving market dynamics, overshadowing monetary policy.
NatWest: The year ahead 2025Fiscal Policy Dominance
Government spending and borrowing are increasingly driving market dynamics, overshadowing monetary policy. 
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Short Trend Summary
Central banks are navigating a complex environment, balancing inflation concerns with the impact of fiscal policy and geopolitical risks.
Monetary Policy Uncertainty- Navigating Global Uncertainty
- Currency markets
- Economic Growth
- Inflation
- Interest rates
- Business & Commerce
- Finance & Money
Central banks are navigating a complex environment, balancing inflation concerns with the impact of fiscal policy and geopolitical risks.
NatWest: The year ahead 2025Monetary Policy Uncertainty
Central banks are navigating a complex environment, balancing inflation concerns with the impact of fiscal policy and geopolitical risks. 
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Short Trend Summary
Artificial intelligence is poised to significantly enhance productivity and potentially reshape economic growth trajectories.
AI-Driven Productivity Boost- AI-Driven Transformation
- Economic Growth
- Inflation
- Labor markets
- Productivity growth
- Business & Commerce
- Emerging Technology
- Finance & Money
Artificial intelligence is poised to significantly enhance productivity and potentially reshape economic growth trajectories.
Mercer: Economic and market outlook...AI-Driven Productivity Boost
Artificial intelligence is poised to significantly enhance productivity and potentially reshape economic growth trajectories. 
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Short Trend Summary
The potential for increased tariffs under the new Trump administration introduces significant uncertainty and downside risks to global trade and economic growth.
Trump’s Tariff Uncertainty- Navigating Global Uncertainty
- Economic Growth
- Global Trade
- Inflation
- International Relations
- Business & Commerce
- Finance & Money
- Government & Politics
The potential for increased tariffs under the new Trump administration introduces significant uncertainty and downside risks to global trade and economic growth.
Mercer: Economic and market outlook...Trump’s Tariff Uncertainty
The potential for increased tariffs under the new Trump administration introduces significant uncertainty and downside risks to global trade and economic growth. 
