emerging
Trump’s Tariff Uncertainty
The potential for increased tariffs under the new Trump administration introduces significant uncertainty and downside risks to global trade and economic growth.
Timeframe
near-term
Subcategories
Impact areas
Detailed Analysis
President-elect Trump's proposed tariff increases, potentially reaching 60% on Chinese imports and a broader 10% tariff on all other imports, pose a major risk to the global economy. While the actual implementation and scale of these tariffs remain uncertain, their potential impact is substantial. "Following the election of President-elect Trump, risks to both the upside and downside for growth and inflation have increased significantly."
Context Signals
The proposed tariffs are significantly larger than those implemented in 2018/2019.
The tariffs could be used as a negotiating tactic rather than being fully implemented.
The impact on specific sectors and countries will vary depending on the final tariff structure.
Edge
The tariffs could trigger retaliatory measures from other countries, escalating into a trade war.
Businesses may accelerate diversification of their supply chains away from China to mitigate tariff risks.
The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs could dampen investment and hinder economic growth.
