emerging
US Policy Uncertainty
The re-election of Donald Trump introduces significant uncertainty regarding US trade policy and its impact on global markets.
Timeframe
near-term
Subcategories
Impact areas
Detailed Analysis
The report highlights the potential for significant policy changes under the new US administration, particularly regarding trade. The possibility of new tariffs being imposed on imports, especially from China, could disrupt global supply chains and impact economic growth. The uncertainty surrounding the future of existing stimulus packages, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, adds further complexity to the outlook. Investors will need to closely monitor policy developments and assess their potential impact on various asset classes.
Context Signals
President-elect Trump has expressed support for higher tariffs.
The future of the Inflation Reduction Act is uncertain.
Trade tensions between the US and China could escalate.
Edge
Companies exposed to the onshoring of US supply chains could benefit from new tariffs.
Increased volatility in currency markets is possible as trade policies evolve.
Investors may want to consider hedging strategies to mitigate the risks associated with policy uncertainty.
