emerging
Looming AI Chip Shortage
The increasing demand for GPUs for AI, coupled with the proliferation of AI-enabled devices, could trigger the next semiconductor shortage.
Timeframe
near-term
Categories
Subcategories
Impact areas
Detailed Analysis
The rapid adoption of AI is creating a surge in demand for semiconductors, potentially leading to another shortage. The report warns that "accelerating adoption of AI across industries will pressure the supply of graphics processing units (GPUs)." This demand, combined with the growth of AI-enabled devices, could strain the semiconductor supply chain. Bain's forecasting model suggests that a doubling of GPU demand could require component suppliers to increase output by 30% or more. This highlights the need for proactive measures like long-term purchase agreements and supply chain diversification to mitigate looming risks.
Context Signals
Increased capital spending by cloud service providers on AI and accelerated computing.
Growth in silicon surface area for CPUs and smartphone processors to accommodate on-device AI.
Supply chain vulnerabilities due to geopolitical tensions and other disruptions.
Edge
Companies that secure long-term access to chips and manufacturing capacity will be better positioned.
A shift from "just-in-time" to "just-in-case" inventory strategies will become more prevalent.
Monitoring advanced packaging and substrate supply will be as crucial as monitoring front-end semiconductor manufacturing.
