current
Global Growth Slowdown
Global economic growth is slowing down, with persistent recession risks in major economies like the US and Eurozone.
Timeframe
near-term
Subcategories
Impact areas
Detailed Analysis
The global economy is experiencing a slowdown, with growth bottoming out in the first half of 2024. While a recovery is expected in the second half, driven by net trade and consumption, overall growth remains sluggish. "Recession risks persist in the Eurozone and are rising in the US as the labor market is softening. Overall, we expect global GDP growth at +2.8% in 2024-25, with growth slowing to +1.7% in the US and reaching potential in the Eurozone at +1.4% in 2025." This slowdown is further complicated by a super-election year and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, creating significant downside risks.
Context Signals
Global GDP growth projected at +2.8% in 2024-25
US growth slowing to +1.7%
Eurozone growth at +1.4% in 2025
Edge
The interplay of slowing growth and political uncertainty could lead to unexpected market volatility.
Companies may delay major investment decisions, further hindering growth prospects.
Emerging markets could offer relative stability and investment opportunities.
