emerging
Trump’s Tariff Uncertainty
President-elect Trump's proposed tariffs on Chinese and other imports introduce significant uncertainty and downside risks to global growth.
Timeframe
near-term
Subcategories
Impact areas
Detailed Analysis
The report highlights the substantial uncertainty surrounding President-elect Trump's proposed tariffs. While their implementation remains uncertain, they represent a major risk to global trade and economic growth. The potential for a broader trade war and disruption to business activity is a key concern. If implemented, these tariffs would be the largest in over a century.
Context Signals
The proposed tariffs are significantly larger than those implemented in 2018/2019.
The tariffs could be a negotiating tactic to secure better trade deals for the United States.
The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs is impacting business investment decisions.
Edge
Companies may diversify their supply chains to mitigate the impact of potential tariffs.
Countries could form new trade alliances to counter the protectionist policies of the US.
The tariffs could accelerate the shift of manufacturing capacity away from China to other emerging markets.
