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Hybrid Warfare Expansion

Hybrid warfare tactics are evolving, with increased reliance on cyber and influence operations to achieve geopolitical objectives.

Detailed Analysis

The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrate the growing importance of cyber and influence operations in hybrid warfare. Nation-state actors are using these tactics to disrupt critical infrastructure, spread disinformation, and undermine public trust. These activities extend beyond the geographical boundaries of the conflict zones, demonstrating the globalized nature of modern warfare.

Context Signals

Increased targeting of internet-exposed OT devices. Use of cyber personas to amplify destructive attacks.

Edge

Hybrid warfare tactics may become increasingly difficult to distinguish from traditional military operations. The blurring of lines between cyber warfare and influence operations will create new challenges for international law and norms.
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TRENDS
Since June 2023, threat actors associated with Russian military intelligence (GRU) and the FSB have used at least two undisciplined approaches to gain access to Ukrainian military and military-adjacent devices