emerging
Weak Medium-Term Growth
The medium-term global growth outlook is weak, projected at 3.1% in 2029, one of the lowest five-year-ahead forecasts in decades.
Timeframe
long-term
Categories
Impact areas
Detailed Analysis
The IMF projects global growth of 3.1% in 2029, "one of the lowest five-year-ahead forecasts in decades." This sluggish growth, coupled with high debt levels and elevated interest rates, limits funding for public services and vital investments. "Slowing growth prospects mean that some—particularly low-income—countries face being left behind in the march toward income convergence."
Context Signals
Slowdown in total factor productivity growth.
Drop in post-crisis private capital formation.
Slower working-age population growth in major economies.
Edge
Increased focus on structural reforms to boost productivity.
Potential for emerging technologies to stimulate growth.
Greater inequality within and between countries.
