emerging
U.S. Election Impacts
The 2024 U.S. election results are expected to lead to deregulation, potential tax policy changes, and increased macroeconomic volatility.
Timeframe
near-term
Subcategories
Detailed Analysis
The 2024 U.S. election outcome is expected to have significant implications for markets and the economy. The document anticipates "less regulation, wider deficits and more tariffs" under the new administration. While deregulation and a focus on domestic economic outcomes could be positive for certain sectors, the potential for increased deficits, higher inflation, and trade tensions pose risks to global growth. The sunsetting of tax policies from the 2017 TCJA adds another layer of complexity, with potential implications for individual and corporate tax rates.
Context Signals
U.S. Treasury yields have risen since the election, reflecting concerns about wider deficits.
Elevated mortgage rates may continue to impact the housing market.
Tariff policy presents a significant risk to global growth, with potential retaliation from trading partners.
Edge
The potential for increased fiscal spending could create opportunities in infrastructure and other sectors favored by government investment.
Trade tensions and tariff policies could lead to shifts in global supply chains and create opportunities for domestic producers.
The uncertainty surrounding tax policy changes could create volatility in markets and require careful planning for investors.
