current
Multipolarity and Reshoring
Geopolitical rivalries are intensifying, leading to a multipolar world order and strategic reshoring of critical supplies.
Timeframe
near-term
Impact areas
Detailed Analysis
The global landscape is shifting from a unipolar system dominated by the US to a multipolar one where national interests take precedence. This shift, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and rising interstate conflicts, has ended the 'peace dividend' and increased macroeconomic and financial market volatility. While full deglobalization is unlikely, strategic reshoring, particularly in sectors like IT and energy, is gaining momentum.
Context Signals
Increased military spending since mid-2010s
Rise in interstate conflicts
China's increased foreign direct investment in intermediary countries
Edge
Political factors will increasingly influence investment decisions, creating opportunities for investors who can navigate this complex landscape.
Intermediary countries may benefit from facilitating indirect trade between major powers.
New alliances and partnerships could emerge as countries seek to secure their interests in a multipolar world.
