current
Global Economic Divergence
The US economy is projected to outperform Europe and Japan, leading to continued global economic divergence.
Timeframe
near-term
Subcategories
Impact areas
Detailed Analysis
The document highlights the diverging economic performance of major global economies. The US is expected to maintain moderate growth, while Europe and Japan face slower growth prospects. "Global economic divergence – in which the US accelerates ahead of Europe and Japan – could continue under a second Donald Trump presidency."
Context Signals
Germany's economy has contracted for two consecutive years
Japan's economic growth has slowed
Trump's policies could exacerbate this divergence
Edge
This divergence could create opportunities for investors to selectively allocate capital to regions with stronger growth prospects.
Currency markets could be significantly impacted by this divergence, with the US dollar potentially strengthening further.
The differing economic conditions could lead to asynchronous monetary policies across central banks, creating further complexity for investors.
