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Asia Domestic Resilience

Asia's economies, particularly India and ASEAN, are demonstrating robust domestic growth, driven by internal demand and intra-regional trade, mitigating the impact of global trade uncertainties.

Detailed Analysis

Despite trade tensions and tariff risks stemming from the new US administration, Asia's economic outlook remains positive, fueled by strong domestic demand in India and ASEAN, and increased stimulus measures in China. This internal resilience is further bolstered by growing intra-regional trade and investment, reducing reliance on external markets. The report highlights a shift in focus towards domestic leaders within Asian markets, emphasizing companies with strong national brand franchises and limited exposure to US markets.

Context Signals

Asia ex-Japan GDP growth forecast at 4.4% in 2025 59% of Chinese consumers expect economic recovery within 2-3 months India and ASEAN projected to achieve 6.5% average per-capita GDP growth over 2023-2026

Edge

Increased focus on domestic consumption within India and ASEAN could lead to the emergence of new market leaders in consumer goods and services. Intra-regional trade and investment could foster greater economic integration within Asia, creating a more unified and powerful economic bloc. The rise of high-end manufacturing in Asia, driven by policy support and global competitiveness, could reshape global supply chains and challenge established manufacturing hubs.
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TRENDS
We expect Asia ex-Japan to see 4.4% GDP growth in 2025 despite trade uncertainty, thanks to robust domestic growth in India and ASEAN, coupled with China’s broadening policy stimulus.