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US Economic Outperformance

The US economy is projected to outperform other developed markets, driven by a combination of factors including solid growth, cooling inflation, and a potentially business-friendly policy environment.

Detailed Analysis

The report anticipates continued US economic strength, with solid growth and cooling inflation forming the baseline scenario. This positive outlook is further bolstered by the expectation of policy changes that could benefit corporate earnings. While acknowledging that markets have already begun to price in this positive outlook, the report suggests there's still room for further upside. "Our baseline forecast remains essentially benign for the US: solid growth, cooling inflation and further non-recessionary rate cuts, alongside a range of policies that could be friendly to corporate earnings." This positive momentum is expected to contrast with the more challenging economic landscape faced by other developed markets, creating a divergence that favors the US.

Context Signals

Market upgrades of US growth Higher US equities and USD Divergence between US and European rate markets

Edge

While markets have adjusted, further upside potential remains for US assets. The divergence between US and other developed markets could create unique investment opportunities. Policy changes, while potentially positive, also carry the risk of disappointment if they don't meet market expectations.
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And while the US is a clear outperformer, non-US economies still see stable growth, falling inflation and monetary easing in our central scenario.