current
US Economic Outperformance
The US economy is projected to outperform other developed markets, driven by a combination of factors including solid growth, cooling inflation, and a potentially business-friendly policy environment.
Timeframe
near-term
Categories
Subcategories
Impact areas
Detailed Analysis
The report anticipates continued US economic strength, with solid growth and cooling inflation forming the baseline scenario. This positive outlook is further bolstered by the expectation of policy changes that could benefit corporate earnings. While acknowledging that markets have already begun to price in this positive outlook, the report suggests there's still room for further upside. "Our baseline forecast remains essentially benign for the US: solid growth, cooling inflation and further non-recessionary rate cuts, alongside a range of policies that could be friendly to corporate earnings." This positive momentum is expected to contrast with the more challenging economic landscape faced by other developed markets, creating a divergence that favors the US.
Context Signals
Market upgrades of US growth
Higher US equities and USD
Divergence between US and European rate markets
Edge
While markets have adjusted, further upside potential remains for US assets.
The divergence between US and other developed markets could create unique investment opportunities.
Policy changes, while potentially positive, also carry the risk of disappointment if they don't meet market expectations.