emerging
Soft Economic Landing
The global economy is expected to experience a soft landing, with growth slowing initially before reaccelerating through 2025.
Timeframe
near-term
Categories
Subcategories
Impact areas
Detailed Analysis
The report's base case scenario is a soft landing for the global economy. "We expect growth to continue to slow in the near term, followed by a reacceleration through 2025, which should foster a favourable environment for risk assets globally." This projection is based on the expectation that central bank easing will counteract the effects of slowing economic activity. The report highlights resilient labor markets and strong household balance sheets as factors supporting continued growth.
Context Signals
Global PMI data signals a steady growth environment.
Normalizing money growth suggests a more benign inflation environment.
Easing financial conditions typically point to improving growth ahead.
Edge
A stronger-than-expected reacceleration could lead to increased inflationary pressures.
Geopolitical risks or unexpected economic shocks could derail the soft landing scenario.
The soft landing could create a favorable environment for investment in risk assets, particularly in non-US developed markets.
