emerging

Out-of-System Assets

Assets outside the traditional financial system, like gold and Bitcoin, are gaining traction due to geopolitical tensions and weakening government balance sheets.

Detailed Analysis

The weaponization of the financial system through sanctions and rising public debt are driving demand for assets insulated from government control. Gold's recent outperformance, despite the absence of traditional drivers, highlights this trend. This shift reflects a growing concern about the return *of* capital rather than the return *on* capital.

Context Signals

Gold's decoupling from traditional drivers Rising US government debt Increased use of sanctions

Edge

Demand for out-of-system assets could continue to rise if geopolitical tensions persist. Digital assets like Bitcoin may become increasingly integrated into investment portfolios. This trend could challenge the dominance of traditional financial institutions and instruments.
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TRENDS
Since we last updated our Secular Outlook publication 12 months ago, gold has topped the cross-asset performance league table.